World Cup Scoring Trends & Rankings

STA/ISS 313 - Spring 2023 - Project 1

RGodz

Introduction

• Our investigation utilizes FIFA World Cup data including two datasets titled matches and wc

• The matches dataset includes data from every World Cup game from 1930 - 2018 and its variables reflect which teams played in a match and its outcome

• The wc dataset includes general information about each individual World Cup with variables like tournament host, year, and which nations placed first through fourth

Question 1: How has aggregate goal count per match changed over time, and does the round in which a match is played correlate with this metric?

Goals per match over time

Figure 1

Goals per match by tournament stage

Figure 2

Discussion

• It is challenging to discern any concrete trends as far as goal tally having a strong relationship with tournament stage

• Goals per match seem to be most consistent in the Group stage (2 to 3 goals per match) which makes sense given it sees the highest amount of matches

• Overall, it seems that goals per match have declined over time with countries recently becoming more conservative in later rounds

Question 2: Over the course of the FIFA World Cup’s tenure, which nations have had the most success aggregated across all tournaments from 1930 to 2018 when considering semi-final appearances and overall goal differential?

Rankings: semifinal appearances

Figure 3

Rankings: goal differential and win %

Figure 4

Discussion

• The first plot demonstrates that total goal differential and final four appearances have a strong relationship

• This research question has given us insight into which teams consistently perform the best in the history of the World Cup, that being Brazil, Germany, and Italy